China's "Shock of Population Decline" Will It Become Real This Year?Born in Henan province last year

In some parts of China, the number of people born this year has decreased to around 20%. If the tally is expanded nationwide, the possibility of a decrease in the total population is growing for the first time since the founding of China (the People's Republic of China).

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 18th, citing data from the Chinese government and each region, the number of babies born in Henan Province, the third-largest population among China's 31 provinces, fell 18.8% from the same period last year. In addition, the number of babies born in Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, fell 16.8% from the same period last year from January to October this year.

The number of babies born in Zzhou, Anhui Province, plunged 21% from January to October this year. Earlier, the Anhui provincial government predicted 530,000 births this year, down 18 percent from last year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the total number of births in China in 2020 was 12 million, down 18.1% from the previous year. The number of people born in 2019 was 14.65 million. In a related development, according to the SCMP, Dr. He Yafu, a Chinese demographer, predicted that the number of people born in China could fall 13-20% this year from last year to 9.5 million to 10.5 million. Considering that the average death toll in China is more than 10 million per year, a decrease in the total population is likely to become a reality this year.

The response of the Chinese government and society to the crisis of population decline remains lukewarm. It is interpreted as a result of the conceit that it is already the world's largest population. According to the recent 7th census, China's population was 1.41,778,724 as of the end of October last year, the only population in the world. However, due to the low birth rate, the population peaked and is already approaching the 'population cliff'. The proportion of the productive population aged 15 to 59 in the total population was more than 70% in 2010, but fell to 63.4% last year. Those aged 60 or older accounted for 18.7%, up from 13.3% in 2010.

This year, the Chinese government allowed up to three children to be born in one family and provided various benefits such as childbirth subsidies. However, it is not easy to change the feelings of young Chinese who are suffering from living difficulties such as soaring housing prices. Dr. Huh said, "The population decline has a long-term and chronic impact on the economy. The decline in China's working population since 2012 is one of the reasons why economic growth has slowed over the past decade," he pointed out.

As the number of marriages is already plummeting, a long-term decline in the birth rate is expected to be inevitable. According to China's Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations in the first three quarters of 2021 was 5,886,000, down 17.5% from the same period of 2019, before the outbreak of COVID-19. Compared to the same period last year, it decreased by 0.1%.

According to a survey conducted by the Communist Youth Corps last month on unmarried young people in the city, 34.0% of the survey participants said they were "uncertain" or "not" when asked whether they would marry. The negative response rate to marriage was 43.9% for women, which was higher than that of men (19.2%).

China, which has a per capita national income of only $10, has become an environment to avoid marriage and childbirth like advanced countries such as Korea and Japan with more than $30,000. "The decline in the birth rate shows that the current measures to encourage childbirth are not working," the SCMP said. "Some scholars warn that without stronger government support, the birth rate could be the lowest in the world."

Date: 2021-11-01

Reporter: 신정훈