U.S. prices rose 8.5 percent in July... a slowdown in gains

The U.S. consumer price rise, which had soared to the ceiling, has been somewhat dampened by the recent drop in oil prices. However, analysts say that it is too early to be relieved that the absolute level is still high, oil prices are likely to rebound, and global food prices are also on the rise day after day due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S. Department of Labor said on the 10th that consumer prices rose 8.5 percent in July from the same month last year. It was lower than the June (9.1%), the highest level in 41 years since 1981, and was lower than the Wall Street forecast, which was originally expected to be 8.7 to 8.9%. Analysts say that the 7.7% drop in U.S. gasoline prices in July from a month earlier led to lower-than-expected consumer prices.

As a result, attention is being paid to whether the U.S. central bank's Federal Reserve will carry out a 0.75% point rate hike, or "giant step," for the third consecutive time following June and July at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will set the benchmark interest rate on the 20th and 21st of next month. According to FedWatch of the Chicago Futures Exchange, which predicts the key interest rate trend with interest rate futures, market participants see a 64.5% chance of a giant step in September as of the 10th.

On the other hand, the U.S. growth rate in the first and second quarters recorded negative (-) for the second consecutive quarter and real household income decreased due to high prices, raising the possibility that the Fed will take a breather. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also said in a recent report that "strong inflation reduced real household income in OECD member countries by 1.1% in the first quarter." In particular, it was diagnosed that real household income in the U.S. decreased by 1.8 percent in the first quarter.

Date: 2022-08-11

Reporter: 정새울